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The New York Mets (98-58) open a crucial 3-game set with the Atlanta Braves (97-59) Friday at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 9-7

The Mets enter this one clinging to a 1-game lead over the Braves in the NL East in what will be one of the most compelling series of the season. They have traded wins and losses over the last 7 games but need to win this series to hold on to the division and 2nd spot in the NL.

Atlanta lost a 3-2 heartbreaker in 10 innings at the Washington Nationals Wednesday. It snapped a 4-game winning streak. The Braves have their hands full with RHP Jacob deGrom going for the Mets. Atlanta needs this game to have a chance at avoiding a wild-card spot.

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Mets at Braves projected starters

RHP Jacob deGrom vs. RHP Max Fried

deGrom (5-3, 2.93 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 0.74 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 14.0 K/9 in 58 1/3 IP.

  • Last 4 starts: 1-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 14.7 K/9
  • 2 starts vs. Braves this year: 12 1/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 21 K

Fried (13-7, 2.50 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 180 1/3 IP.

  • Last 4 starts: 1-2, 2.05 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
  • 4 starts against Mets this year: 2-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.3 K/9

Mets at Braves odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+145) | Braves +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Mets at Braves picks and predictions


Braves 3, Mets 2

Atlanta has had some success against deGrom this year, and they definitely have more incentive to take this game. He’ll likely strike out a ton of hitters, but Atlanta is a championship-caliber team, and they find ways to win. He’s simply trying to come out of his last start healthy and ready for the playoffs. I like the BRAVES (+105).

The Braves RL probably has the best chance to cash, but it’s too expensive for me. Instead, let’s back Fried, who has been great this month and against the Mets, to keep them in it.

Take the BRAVES +0.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-160) to at least keep it tied after 5.

The Mets are 8-2 O/U over the last 10; whereas Atlanta is 4-6. The wind is blowing straight out to center field at 6 mph. These two pitchers faced each other Aug. 16, and it went Under, actually by the same 3-2 score predicted here.

However, I’d prefer to pass on the total and take BRAVES OVER 2.5 TOTAL RUNS (-125) in a safer setting.

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