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The Atlanta Braves (64-45) close out a 5-game series with the NL East rival New York Mets (69-39) Sunday at Citi Field with the 1st pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York has won 3 of the first 4 games of this series, including a doubleheader sweep of Atlanta Saturday. The Mets won 8-5 in the 1st game and 6-2 in the nightcap.
Season series: The Mets lead 7-4
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Braves at Mets projected starters
RHP Spencer Strider vs. RHP Jacob deGrom
Strider is 6-3 with a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 87 IP over 12 starts and 11 relief appearances.
- Last start: Won 13-1 Tuesday at home vs. the Philadelphia Phillies with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 13 K
- 2022 vs. the Mets: 1 start, a no-decision in Atlanta’s 4-1 home win July 12 with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 8 K
- Strider is a heavy favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year (-200
This is deGrom’s (0-0, 1.80 ERA) 2nd start of the season.
- Last start: No-decision in Mets’ 5-1 loss at the Washington Nationals Tuesday with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 6 K
- 2021 vs. the Braves: 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 20 K in 2 starts
Braves at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:43 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Braves +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mets -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Braves at Mets picks and predictions
Braves 3, Mets 2
BET the BRAVES (+120) because Strider has some of the nastiest stuff in MLB and has allowed 1 or 0 earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts.
Also, this line is suspiciously low considering how much the betting public loves backing the Mets with deGrom on the bump. New York’s average line as home favorites with deGrom as the starter is -234 since the beginning of 2020.
Furthermore, nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Mets (-145) according to Pregame.com but Tipico Sportsbook hasn’t moved the line. In fact, several other oddsmakers have lowered New York’s ML, which is suspect considering the betting splits.
However, BET a HALF-UNIT only on the BRAVES (+120) because Strider is still just a rookie and the Mets are 11-5 overall as home favorites with deGrom on the mound since 2020.
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The Braves +1.5 (-190) is far too expensive considering 10 of their 11 meetings with the Mets -1.5 (+155) have been decided by at least 2 runs and New York is 44-37 RL as favorites.
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+110) since Strider has been dominant this year and deGrom has a 1.80 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. the Braves.
Also, the Under 6.5 (+110) appears to be the sharper play since slightly more money is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over 6.5 (-135), per Pregame.com. Typically, it’s wise to follow the cash column when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors wager a lot more dough.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) because the Braves-Mets total is sharp and there isn’t a lot of value in this number.
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